A New Inclusive Volcanic Risk Ranking, Part 1: Methodology

The ever-increasing population living near active volcanoes highlights the need for implementation of effective risk reduction measures to save lives and reduce impact volcanic unrest eruptions. To help identify systems associated with potential high prioritize strategies, we introduce a new Volcanic Risk Ranking (VRR) methodology that integrates hazard, exposure, vulnerability as factors increase risk, resilience factor reduces risk. Here present description using Mexican case study, while regional application Latin American is presented in companion paper (Guimarães et al., submitted). With respect existing proposed VRR expands parameters hazard exposure includes analysis 4 dimensions (physical, systemic, social, economic) resilience. In particular, propose 41 be analyzed, including 9 parameters, 10 13 parameters. Since number evaluated each different, they are normalized have same weight based on dedicated sensitivity analyses. order best illustrate methodology, here applied compared other approaches. We found highest combination (3-factor VRR) this geographic area Tacaná El Chichón regardless analyzed time window eruption occurrence (i.e., <1 <10 ka). Nonetheless, ka require most urgent actions no or few place Michoacán-Guanajuato Field San Martín Tuxtla (4-factor VRR); top 4-factor Las Cumbres.